Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   ·TEN 17, BUF 10

   End of half - 2:32 pm

   +44pp

   TEN
2. 2
   Q1 · 5:58·TEN 9, BUF 7

   (5:58) (Shotgun) 28-C.Johnson right guard for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

   +15pp

   TEN
3. 3
   Q1 · 5:06·TEN 10, BUF 7

   (5:06) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 16-B.Smith to TEN 41 for 29 yards (52-C.McCarthy). Caught at BUF 34, receiver crossing to left. Key block: T.Choice.

   +12pp

   BUF
4. 4
   Q1 · 2:17·TEN 10, BUF 7

   (2:17) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick scrambles up the middle to TEN 34 for no gain (52-C.McCarthy). FUMBLES (52-C.McCarthy), touched at TEN 36, RECOVERED by TEN-52-C.McCarthy at TEN 43. Penalty on BUF-75-C.Hairston, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

   +11pp

   TEN
5. 5
   Q1 · 9:03·TEN 3, BUF 0

   (9:03) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 86-D.Nelson to BUF 44 for 14 yards (20-A.Verner). Caught in flat at BUF 44.

   +9pp

   BUF