Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q4 · 12:14·JAX 14, IND 21

   (12:14) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard sacked at IND 29 for -11 yards (sack split by 28-M.Jackson and 54-F.Keiaho).

   +12pp

   IND
2. 2
   Q1 · 1:37·JAX 0, IND 13

   (1:37) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep left to 87-R.Wayne for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

   +12pp

   IND
3. 3
   Q4 · 2:53·JAX 23, IND 28

   (2:53) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard pass deep middle to 86-D.Northcutt for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

   +12pp

   JAX
4. 4
   Q1 · 10:18·JAX 0, IND 0

   (10:18) 9-D.Garrard sacked at JAX 6 for -6 yards (98-R.Mathis). FUMBLES (98-R.Mathis), recovered by JAX-33-G.Jones at JAX 11. 33-G.Jones to JAX 11 for no gain (96-K.Dawson). Indianapolis challenged the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-D.Garrard sacked at JAX 6 for -6 yards (98-R.Mathis). FUMBLES (98-R.Mathis), RECOVERED by IND-79-R.Brock at JAX 11. 79-R.Brock to JAX 11 for no gain (74-M.Williams, 67-V.Manuwai). Minus 1 sack yard.

   +11pp

   IND
5. 5
   Q3 · 3:29·JAX 14, IND 21

   (3:29) 18-P.Manning pass short middle intended for 44-D.Clark INTERCEPTED by 25-R.Nelson at JAX -4. 25-R.Nelson to JAX 33 for 37 yards (18-P.Manning).

   +11pp

   JAX