Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q4 · 3:51·IND 24, NE 27

   (3:51) 32-E.James left guard to NE 1 for no gain (26-E.Wilson). FUMBLES (26-E.Wilson), RECOVERED by NE-75-V.Wilfork at NE 1. 75-V.Wilfork to NE 1 for no gain (44-D.Clark).

   +40pp

   NWE
2. 2
   Q4 · 1:43·IND 24, NE 27

   (1:43) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass to 83-B.Stokley to NE 19 for 45 yards (26-E.Wilson).

   +29pp

   IND
3. 3
   Q4 · 0:49·IND 24, NE 27

   (:49) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning sacked at NE 29 for -12 yards (55-W.McGinest).

   +26pp

   NWE
4. 4
   Q4 · 5:30·IND 24, NE 27

   (5:30) 17-H.Smith punts 30 yards to NE 26, Center-48-J.Snow. 83-D.Branch MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by IND-57-J.Nelson at NE 33. 57-J.Nelson to NE 33 for no gain (53-L.Izzo).

   +23pp

   IND
5. 5
   Q3 · 5:14·IND 17, NE 20

   (5:14) 32-E.James up the middle to NE 18 for 4 yards (94-T.Warren). FUMBLES (94-T.Warren), RECOVERED by NE-26-E.Wilson at NE 18. 26-E.Wilson to NE 18 for no gain (56-T.Peko). Play Challenged by IND and Upheld. (Timeout #2 by IND at 05:06.)

   +22pp

   NWE