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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

Week 4 of 2023

1
DEN31
at
CHI28

CHI peaked at 98% win probability, lost 3128 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 2%.

98%
Peak WP
View game flow →
2
MIN21
at
CAR13

CAR peaked at 88% win probability, lost 2113 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 12%.

88%
Peak WP
View game flow →
3
WAS31
at
PHI34

WAS peaked at 83% win probability, lost 3431 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 17%.

83%
Peak WP
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4
DET34
at
GNB20

GNB peaked at 72% win probability, lost 3420 to DET.DET bottomed out at 28%.

72%
Peak WP
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5
TAM26
at

NOR peaked at 67% win probability, lost 269 to TAM.TAM bottomed out at 33%.

67%
Peak WP
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6
LVR17
at
LAC24

LVR peaked at 48% win probability, lost 2417 to LAC.LAC bottomed out at 52%.

48%
Peak WP
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7
MIA20
at
BUF48

MIA peaked at 45% win probability, lost 4820 to BUF.BUF bottomed out at 55%.

45%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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