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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 12 of 2023

1
BUF34
at
PHI37

BUF peaked at 88% win probability, lost 37–34 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 12%.

88%
Peak WP
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2
KAN31
at
LVR17

LVR peaked at 85% win probability, lost 31–17 to KAN.KAN bottomed out at 15%.

85%
Peak WP
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3
NOR15
at
ATL24

NOR peaked at 65% win probability, lost 24–15 to ATL.ATL bottomed out at 35%.

65%
Peak WP
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4
GNB29
at
DET22

DET peaked at 57% win probability, lost 29–22 to GNB.GNB bottomed out at 43%.

57%
Peak WP
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5
CAR10
at
TEN17

CAR peaked at 55% win probability, lost 17–10 to TEN.TEN bottomed out at 45%.

55%
Peak WP
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6
CLE12
at
DEN29

CLE peaked at 43% win probability, lost 29–12 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 57%.

43%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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