Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Top 10 of the 2019 season
CIN peaked at 71% win probability, lost 21–20 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 29%.
CLE peaked at 70% win probability, lost 43–13 to TEN.TEN bottomed out at 30%.
CAR peaked at 63% win probability, lost 30–27 to LAR.LAR bottomed out at 37%.
MIA peaked at 59% win probability, lost 59–10 to BAL.BAL bottomed out at 41%.
WAS peaked at 46% win probability, lost 32–27 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 54%.
ATL peaked at 43% win probability, lost 28–12 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 57%.
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
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