Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Top 10 of the 2016 season
NYJ peaked at 87% win probability, lost 23–22 to CIN.CIN bottomed out at 13%.
TEN peaked at 83% win probability, lost 25–16 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 17%.
CHI peaked at 78% win probability, lost 23–14 to HOU.HOU bottomed out at 22%.
ATL peaked at 71% win probability, lost 31–24 to TAM.TAM bottomed out at 29%.
JAX peaked at 70% win probability, lost 27–23 to GNB.GNB bottomed out at 30%.
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
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