Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Top 10 of the 2010 season
PHI peaked at 71% win probability, lost 27–20 to GNB.GNB bottomed out at 29%.
CAR peaked at 59% win probability, lost 31–18 to NYG.NYG bottomed out at 41%.
LVR peaked at 56% win probability, lost 38–13 to TEN.TEN bottomed out at 44%.
CIN peaked at 45% win probability, lost 38–24 to NWE.NWE bottomed out at 55%.
IND peaked at 42% win probability, lost 34–24 to HOU.HOU bottomed out at 58%.
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
Want the raw data behind these reports?
25 seasons of NFL data in Excel format, updated weekly.