Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Top 10 of the 2008 season
SFO peaked at 68% win probability, lost 23–13 to ARI.ARI bottomed out at 32%.
JAX peaked at 66% win probability, lost 17–10 to TEN.TEN bottomed out at 34%.
TAM peaked at 64% win probability, lost 24–20 to NOR.NOR bottomed out at 36%.
MIN peaked at 61% win probability, lost 24–19 to GNB.GNB bottomed out at 39%.
LVR peaked at 59% win probability, lost 41–14 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 41%.
HOU peaked at 47% win probability, lost 38–17 to PIT.PIT bottomed out at 53%.
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
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