Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q4 · 2:31·JAX 13, IND 19

   (2:31) 18-P.Manning pass to 81-M.Pollard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

   +18pp

   IND
2. 2
   Q3 · 6:52·JAX 10, IND 10

   (6:52) 32-E.James up the middle to JAX 30 for 3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by JAX-53-T.Slaughter at JAX 28. 53-T.Slaughter to JAX 28 for no gain (80-J.Davenport). Play Challenged by IND and Upheld. (Timeout #1 at 06:46.)

   +12pp

   JAX
3. 3
   Q4 · 9:09·JAX 13, IND 10

   (9:09) 18-P.Manning scrambles right end pushed ob at JAX 33 for 8 yards (53-T.Slaughter).

   +12pp

   IND
4. 4
   Q4 · 12:22·JAX 13, IND 10

   (12:22) 17-H.Smith punts 42 yards to JAX 27, Center-48-J.Snow. 81-B.Shaw to JAX 32 for 5 yards (48-J.Snow, 29-J.Jefferson). PENALTY on JAX-35-E.Joseph, Running Into the Kicker, 5 yards, enforced at IND 31 - No Play.

   +11pp

   IND
5. 5
   Q2 · 1:08·JAX 10, IND 3

   (1:08) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard up the middle to JAX 22 for 1 yard (93-D.Freeney). FUMBLES (93-D.Freeney), RECOVERED by IND-28-I.Bashir at JAX 23. 28-I.Bashir to JAX 23 for no gain (78-T.Fordham). Play Challenged by Replay Official and Upheld.

   +11pp

   IND