Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q4 · 0:28·ATL 31, BUF 31

   (:28) (Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel pass short right to 13-S.Johnson to ATL 30 for 14 yards (27-R.McClain). FUMBLES (27-R.McClain), RECOVERED by ATL-25-W.Moore at ATL 28. 25-W.Moore ran ob at ATL 28 for no gain.

   +27pp

   ATL
2. 2
   Q5 · 14:34·ATL 31, BUF 31

   (14:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel pass deep middle to 84-S.Chandler to BUF 45 for 22 yards (25-W.Moore). FUMBLES (25-W.Moore), RECOVERED by ATL-23-R.Alford at ATL 40. 23-R.Alford to ATL 35 for -5 yards. Lateral to 21-D.Trufant to BUF 47 for 18 yards (11-T.Graham).

   +22pp

   ATL
3. 3
   Q5 · 13:41·ATL 31, BUF 31

   (13:41) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 83-H.Douglas to BUF 23 for 20 yards (21-L.McKelvin). Screen pass, caught at BUF 43.

   +19pp

   ATL
4. 4
   Q3 · 6:15·ATL 24, BUF 17

   (6:15) 2-M.Ryan FUMBLES (Aborted) at ATL 21, RECOVERED by BUF-50-K.Alonso at ATL 21. 50-K.Alonso to ATL 21 for no gain (61-J.Hawley).

   +18pp

   BUF
5. 5
   Q4 · 11:53·ATL 24, BUF 30

   (11:53) (Shotgun) 28-C.Spiller right tackle for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key block: E.Pears.

   +16pp

   BUF