Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q5 · 13:02·BUF 34, BAL 34

   (13:02) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 89-S.Nelson to BUF 45 for 4 yards (52-R.Lewis). FUMBLES (52-R.Lewis), RECOVERED by BAL-52-R.Lewis at BUF 45. 52-R.Lewis to BUF 44 for 1 yard (83-L.Evans). PENALTY on BUF-63-G.Hangartner, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 44.

   +44pp

   BAL
2. 2
   Q5 · 13:53·BUF 34, BAL 34

   (13:53) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to BUF 22, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-R.Parrish.

   +16pp

   BAL
3. 3
   Q5 · 14:20·BUF 34, BAL 34

   (14:20) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco sacked at BAL 29 for -3 yards (90-C.Kelsay, 52-A.Moats).

   +15pp

   BUF
4. 4
   Q3 · 14:51·BUF 24, BAL 26

   (14:51) 5-J.Flacco pass deep middle to 81-A.Boldin for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. McGahee takes carry, pitches back to Flacco, who throws TD pass to Boldin. Todd Heap (BAL) injured on play.

   +14pp

   BAL
5. 5
   Q1 · 5:06·BUF 7, BAL 3

   9-R.Lindell kicks 71 yards from BUF 30 to BAL -1. 37-J.Wilson to BAL 16 for 17 yards (50-A.Ayodele). FUMBLES (50-A.Ayodele), RECOVERED by BUF-37-G.Wilson at BAL 15. 37-G.Wilson to BAL 15 for no gain (37-J.Wilson). Penalty on BAL-54-P.Burgess, Offensive Holding, declined. Baltimore challenged the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. (Timeout #1 at 05:00.)

   +13pp

   BUF