Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q1 · 9:46·JAX 0, NE 0

   (9:46) 63-D.Connolly and 64-M.LeVoir reported in as eligible. 39-L.Maroney right guard to JAX 1 for no gain (98-J.Henderson). FUMBLES (98-J.Henderson), RECOVERED by JAX-52-D.Smith at JAX 1. New England challenged the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. (Timeout #1 at 09:36.)

   +16pp

   JAX
2. 2
   Q1 · 0:25·JAX 0, NE 7

   (:25) 78-J.Black reported in as eligible. 9-D.Garrard pass deep middle intended for 89-M.Lewis INTERCEPTED by 31-B.Meriweather at NE 17. 31-B.Meriweather to JAX 27 for 56 yards (9-D.Garrard, 44-B.Bolen).

   +12pp

   NWE
3. 3
   Q1 · 4:53·JAX 0, NE 0

   (4:53) 32-M.Jones-Drew right guard to JAX 35 for no gain (36-J.Sanders).

   +11pp

   NWE
4. 4
   Q2 · 15:00·JAX 0, NE 13

   (15:00) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 86-C.Baker for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady now has 4,024 passing yards this season, 3rd 4,000-yard season of his career (most in Patriots history)

   +7pp

   NWE
5. 5
   Q1 · 11:52·JAX 0, NE 0

   (11:52) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 83-W.Welker to JAX 26 for 15 yards (21-D.Cox).

   +6pp

   NWE