Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q2 · 10:33·NE 14, DAL 9

   (10:33) 12-T.Brady sacked at NE 32 for -5 yards (98-G.Ellis). FUMBLES (98-G.Ellis), RECOVERED by DAL-97-J.Hatcher at NE 29. 97-J.Hatcher for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

   +18pp

   DAL
2. 2
   Q4 · 12:31·NE 37, DAL 24

   (12:31) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 18-D.Stallworth for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The TD pass by Brady is his 5th of the day, tying a single-game career high and a franchise record.

   +10pp

   NWE
3. 3
   Q2 · 0:51·NE 21, DAL 16

   (:51) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass short middle to 81-T.Owens for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

   +9pp

   DAL
4. 4
   Q3 · 8:50·NE 21, DAL 24

   (8:50) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 83-W.Welker to DAL 44 for 10 yards (33-N.Jones).

   +8pp

   NWE
5. 5
   Q3 · 5:07·NE 21, DAL 24

   (5:07) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep middle to 81-R.Moss. PENALTY on DAL-25-P.Watkins, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 16 - No Play.

   +8pp

   NWE