Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q4 · 13:36·BAL 21, PIT 7

   (13:36) 39-W.Parker up the middle to BAL 3 for 8 yards (35-C.Ivy). FUMBLES (35-C.Ivy), RECOVERED by BAL-20-E.Reed at BAL 3. 20-E.Reed to BAL 35 for 32 yards (7-B.Roethlisberger). Play Challenged by PIT and Upheld. (Timeout #2 by PIT at 13:23.)

   +11pp

   BAL
2. 2
   Q3 · 11:30·BAL 14, PIT 7

   (11:30) (Shotgun) 9-S.McNair pass short middle to 86-T.Heap to PIT 25 for 18 yards (51-J.Farrior).

   +9pp

   BAL
3. 3
   Q1 · 0:11·BAL 6, PIT 0

   (:11) 9-S.McNair pass deep middle to 89-M.Clayton for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

   +9pp

   BAL
4. 4
   Q2 · 0:11·BAL 14, PIT 6

   (:11) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 83-H.Miller for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BAL-95-J.Johnson, Defensive Holding, declined.

   +8pp

   PIT
5. 5
   Q3 · 10:46·BAL 20, PIT 7

   (10:46) 9-S.McNair pass deep left to 87-D.Williams for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

   +7pp

   BAL