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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 3 of 2023

1
NOR17
at
GNB18

NOR peaked at 98% win probability, lost 18–17 to GNB.GNB bottomed out at 2%.

98%
Peak WP
View game flow →
2
IND22
at
BAL19

BAL peaked at 90% win probability, lost 22–19 to IND.IND bottomed out at 10%.

90%
Peak WP
View game flow →
3
LAC28
at
MIN24

MIN peaked at 75% win probability, lost 28–24 to LAC.LAC bottomed out at 25%.

75%
Peak WP
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4
CAR27
at
SEA37

CAR peaked at 69% win probability, lost 37–27 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 31%.

69%
Peak WP
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5
PHI25
at
TAM11

TAM peaked at 57% win probability, lost 25–11 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 43%.

57%
Peak WP
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6
DEN20
at
MIA70

DEN peaked at 45% win probability, lost 70–20 to MIA.MIA bottomed out at 55%.

45%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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