Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Top 10 of the 2017 season
1
NWE peaked at 85% win probability, lost 42–27 to KAN.KAN bottomed out at 15%.
85%
Peak WP
2
65%
Peak WP
3
63%
Peak WP
4
NOR peaked at 60% win probability, lost 29–19 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 40%.
60%
Peak WP
5
57%
Peak WP
6
LAC peaked at 53% win probability, lost 24–21 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 47%.
53%
Peak WP
7
50%
Peak WP
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
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