Down Judge
Jim Mello
Scoring
How high or low his games runSlight Under lean: games trend a bit lower-scoring than the market expects.
⚠ Only 16 priced games. Interpret cautiously.
% Games Over the Total
44%
-5.0ppleague 49% · 16 priced games
Avg Total Points
41.7
-3.9league 45.6 · both teams combined
Spread Outcomes
Who covers the line in his gamesFavorites cover well above the league rate in his games.
⚠ Only 16 spread-priced games.
Favorites Cover %
60%
+11ppleague 49% · 16 priced games
Home Teams Cover %
60%
+11ppleague 49% · home-vs-road tilt
Penalties & Pace
How the crew calls + paces the gameLets-em-play crew: penalty rate runs well below league average.
⚠ Only 16 games with box stats.
Penalties / Game
9.9
-2.7league 12.6 · both teams combined
Plays / Game
120.3
-1.3league 121.6 · pass + rush attempts
Penalty Yards / Game
87
-19league 106
Penalties: home vs road
Home team gets flagged 1.1 more times than the road team (vs league -0.4).
Recent Games Worked
- Jan 7, 2024PHI@NYG10–27Spread PHI -5Total 43.5Penalties 5 (31 yd)37dogunder5 (31 yd)
- Dec 31, 2023LAC@DEN9–16Spread DEN -3.5Total 39Penalties 10 (97 yd)25favunder10 (97 yd)
- Dec 23, 2023CIN@PIT11–34Spread CIN -3Total 39Penalties 5 (35 yd)45dogover5 (35 yd)
- Dec 17, 2023DAL@BUF10–31Spread BUF -2.5Total 49.5Penalties 6 (63 yd)41favunder6 (63 yd)
- Dec 10, 2023MIN@LVR3–0Spread MIN -3Total 40.5Penalties 9 (73 yd)3pushunder9 (73 yd)
- Dec 3, 2023IND@TEN31–28Spread IND -1.5Total 42Penalties 13 (103 yd)59favover13 (103 yd)
- Nov 19, 2023TAM@SFO14–27Spread SFO -13.5Total 41.5Penalties 10 (85 yd)41dogunder10 (85 yd)
- Nov 12, 2023ATL@ARI23–25Spread ATL -2Total 43.5Penalties 15 (155 yd)48dogover15 (155 yd)
- Nov 6, 2023LAC@NYJ27–6Spread LAC -3Total 41Penalties 12 (79 yd)33favunder12 (79 yd)
- Oct 29, 2023NOR@IND38–27Spread NOR -2Total 44Penalties 14 (103 yd)65favover14 (103 yd)
FAV covered · DOG covered · OVER hit · UNDER hit · PUSH
Source: nflverse officials release joined to games. Vegas-controlled signals use the betting market as matchup adjustment. Penalty + plays averages limited to 2012+ when per-team box data is available. Sample-size floor: 30 games.