Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q1 · 2:01·BUF 0, NE 7

   (2:01) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 34-R.Burkhead to NE 48 for 3 yards (52-C.Thompson). FUMBLES (52-C.Thompson), touched at BUF 49, RECOVERED by BUF-23-M.Hyde at NE 49. 23-M.Hyde pushed ob at NE 40 for 9 yards (34-R.Burkhead).

   +9pp

   BUF
2. 2
   Q3 · 5:14·BUF 6, NE 20

   (5:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 25th TD pass of season, ties Favre & Moon for 2nd-most all-time in a season after turning 40.

   +8pp

   NWE
3. 3
   Q1 · 0:13·BUF 0, NE 7

   (:13) 4-S.Hauschka 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.

   +6pp

   NWE
4. 4
   Q1 · 10:16·BUF 0, NE 0

   (10:16) 84-C.Patterson right end to BUF 38 for 12 yards (47-L.Wallace; 90-S.Lawson).

   +5pp

   NWE
5. 5
   Q3 · 14:56·BUF 0, NE 14

   (14:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle intended for 87-R.Gronkowski INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer at NE 24. 21-J.Poyer to NE 24 for no gain (11-J.Edelman).

   +5pp

   BUF