Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q4 · 2:28·TB 27, BUF 27

   (2:28) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 10-A.Humphries to TB 33 for 8 yards (27-T.White). FUMBLES (27-T.White), RECOVERED by BUF-27-T.White at TB 33. Caught in flat at TB 25.

   +23pp

   BUF
2. 2
   Q4 · 10:16·TB 19, BUF 20

   (10:16) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 80-O.Howard for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Hughes]. Caught along sideline at goal line.

   +20pp

   TAM
3. 3
   Q4 · 3:20·TB 26, BUF 20

   (3:20) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught along sideline, 5 yds. into end zone.

   +18pp

   TAM
4. 4
   Q4 · 3:14·TB 27, BUF 20

   (3:14) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left to 10-D.Thompson to TB 31 for 44 yards (36-R.McClain). TB-36-R.McClain was injured during the play. Caught along sideline at TB 36. PENALTY on TB-36-R.McClain, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TB 31.

   +16pp

   BUF
5. 5
   Q4 · 0:08·TB 27, BUF 30

   (:08) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 10-A.Humphries to TB 36 for 5 yards [57-L.Alexander]. Lateral to 34-C.Sims III to TB 33 for -3 yards. Lateral to 13-M.Evans to TB 25 for -8 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by TB-76-D.Smith at TB 25. 76-D.Smith to TB 30 for 5 yards. Lateral to 84-C.Brate to TB 23 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by TB-13-M.Evans at TB 23. 13-M.Evans to TB 23 for no gain. Lateral to 10-A.Humphries to TB 20 for -3 yards. Lateral to 34-C.Sims III to TB 14 for -6 yards. Lateral to 11-D.Jackson to TB 6 for -8 yards. Lateral to 13-M.Evans to TB 14 for 8 yards. Lateral to 11-D.Jackson to TB 29 for 15 yards (99-M.Dareus).

   +13pp

   BUF