Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q4 · 1:09·KC 10, NE 17

   (1:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-D.Huard pass deep right to 81-D.Darling to NE 5 for 68 yards (21-D.O'Neal) [37-R.Harrison].

   +20pp

   KAN
2. 2
   Q1 · 12:18·KC 0, NE 0

   (12:18) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 83-W.Welker to KC 40 for -2 yards (23-P.Surtain). FUMBLES (23-P.Surtain), RECOVERED by KC-44-J.Page at KC 40. 44-J.Page pushed ob at KC 48 for 8 yards (81-R.Moss).

   +17pp

   KAN
3. 3
   Q4 · 0:40·KC 10, NE 17

   (:40) (Shotgun) 11-D.Huard pass incomplete short right to 82-D.Bowe.

   +15pp

   NWE
4. 4
   Q1 · 0:21·KC 0, NE 0

   (:21) 16-M.Cassel pass deep right to 81-R.Moss to KC 48 for 51 yards (23-P.Surtain, 47-J.McGraw). NE 81-Moss now has (13,014) career receiving yards, passing Jimmy Smith for 13th all-time. NE 81-Moss 56th career 100-yard game, 3rd most in NFL history.

   +12pp

   NWE
5. 5
   Q4 · 7:29·KC 10, NE 14

   (7:29) 11-D.Huard pass deep middle intended for 82-D.Bowe INTERCEPTED by 27-E.Hobbs at KC 41. 27-E.Hobbs to KC 38 for 3 yards (82-D.Bowe). PENALTY on NE, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at KC 38.

   +10pp

   NWE