Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q1 · 8:33·BAL 0, NE 0

   (8:33) 7-K.Boller pass intended for 85-K.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 21-R.Gay at NE 36. 21-R.Gay to NE 49 for 13 yards (84-C.Moore). PENALTY on BAL-44-D.Wilcox, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at NE 49.

   +18pp

   NWE
2. 2
   Q2 · 0:46·BAL 0, NE 3

   (:46) 8-Jo.Miller punts 38 yards to BAL 42, Center-66-L.Paxton. 36-B.Sams to NE 46 for 12 yards (58-M.Chatham). PENALTY on NE-58-M.Chatham, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at NE 46. PENALTY on NE-54-T.Bruschi, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

   +14pp

   BAL
3. 3
   Q1 · 13:22·BAL 0, NE 0

   (13:22) 12-T.Brady pass to 86-D.Patten to NE 40 for 37 yards (47-W.Demps).

   +9pp

   NWE
4. 4
   Q2 · 3:05·BAL 0, NE 3

   (3:05) 8-Jo.Miller punts 16 yards to BAL 45, Center-66-L.Paxton, out of bounds.

   +8pp

   BAL
5. 5
   Q1 · 2:04·BAL 0, NE 0

   (2:04) 12-T.Brady pass to 82-D.Graham to BAL 25 for 22 yards (20-E.Reed). Career completeion #1141 for Brady, now 3rd in Patriots history.

   +8pp

   NWE